Bitfinex Alpha Report: Slowing LTH Selling Signals Potential Path to New All-Time Highs
Bitcoin's price action in early 2026 continues to reflect the interplay between macroeconomic policy uncertainty and on-chain supply dynamics. The tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump—initially a source of sharp volatility in 2025—remain a relevant factor as markets assess their potential impact on global liquidity, trade flows, and risk sentiment. The recent pullback from above $95,000 to below $92,000, triggered by escalation in U.S.-EU tensions over Greenland, underscores how geopolitical developments can rapidly reshape digital asset trajectories.
Against this backdrop, analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex have published a detailed assessment of Bitcoin's technical structure and holder behavior, identifying critical supply zones that may determine whether the asset can sustain its recent breakout momentum.
Technical Breakout and Short Squeeze Dynamics
According to Bitfinex's latest weekly report, Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin successfully breached the $94,000–$95,000 resistance band last week, advancing to a two-month high of $97,850. This move catalyzed what analysts described as the largest short squeeze in the past 100 days, forcing leveraged short positions to close and contributing to a temporary improvement in market structure.
Key observations from the breakout:
Open Interest Decline: The squeeze led to a meaningful reduction in derivatives open interest, indicating that crowded speculative positioning was partially unwound.
Momentum Acceleration: The rapid advance above resistance triggered algorithmic buying and momentum-following flows, amplifying upside velocity.
Structural Confirmation: A sustained close above $95,000 would represent a technically significant reclaim of prior supply, though follow-through remains essential.
The Long-Term Holder Supply Zone: $93,000–$110,000
Despite the constructive technical breakout, Bitfinex analysts emphasize that a substantial supply overhang remains in the $93,000–$110,000 price range. Historically, this zone has acted as a distribution area for long-term holders (LTHs)—investors who have held Bitcoin for extended periods and often realize profits during strength.
"This price range has historically limited recoveries, and long-term investors are still showing a clear selling bias," the report stated.
However, a potentially constructive signal has emerged: the pace of LTH selling appears to be moderating. Weekly sales volume based on realized profits has declined to approximately 12,800 BTC, down from higher levels observed during prior resistance tests. Analysts interpret this slowdown as a positive development, suggesting that distribution pressure may be easing even as price approaches historically sensitive levels.
Conditional Pathway to New All-Time Highs
Bitfinex outlines a clear conditional framework for Bitcoin's potential advance toward new record highs:
Sustained Breakout Confirmation: Bitcoin must maintain acceptance above the $94,000–$95,000 zone with expanding volume to validate the breakout.
Further Reduction in LTH Selling: Continued moderation in long-term holder distribution would reduce supply pressure and improve the risk-reward profile for upside continuation.
Macro Liquidity Support: Favorable conditions in global liquidity, real yields, and risk sentiment would provide tailwinds for sustained appreciation.
"If this problematic and main resistance zone, stemming from long-term investors, is overcome, a rally towards a new all-time high (ATH) could occur, potentially breaking records," the report concluded.
Macro Headwinds: Tariffs and Geopolitical Uncertainty
While technical and on-chain factors provide a framework for price analysis, macro developments remain a critical variable. The tariff threats directed at European nations—including Denmark, France, Germany, and others—introduce uncertainty regarding trade flows, currency stability, and institutional risk appetite.
Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin can exhibit heightened sensitivity to geopolitical stress, particularly when such events coincide with elevated leverage or fragile liquidity conditions. For investors, the key is to monitor whether macro headlines produce transient volatility or trigger more sustained shifts in capital allocation.
Analytical Synthesis: Balancing Technical Opportunity with Macro Risk
The convergence of constructive technical signals and persistent macro headwinds creates a nuanced environment for Bitcoin in early 2026. Bitfinex's analysis provides a valuable roadmap:
Near-Term Focus: Watch for volume confirmation above $95,000 and continued moderation in LTH selling as signs of sustainable momentum.
Risk Management: Define clear invalidation levels (e.g., a decisive break below $90,000) to manage exposure during volatile sessions.
Macro Monitoring: Track developments in U.S.-EU negotiations, central bank communications, and liquidity indicators for potential regime shifts.
For long-term investors, the slowdown in LTH distribution offers a cautiously constructive signal. However, the path to new all-time highs remains contingent on both technical resolution and macro stabilization.
Conclusion: Patience Amid Conditional Opportunity
Bitcoin's recent breakout above $94,000–$95,000 represents a meaningful technical development, reinforced by a short squeeze and moderating long-term holder selling. Yet the $93,000–$110,000 supply zone remains a formidable hurdle, and geopolitical tensions continue to inject uncertainty into risk-asset markets.
For participants, the prudent approach may involve acknowledging the constructive on-chain signals while maintaining disciplined risk parameters in an environment where macro catalysts can rapidly reshape sentiment. In volatile markets, preparation and flexibility often prove more valuable than conviction alone.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and subject to rapid change; readers should conduct independent research, verify analytics through primary sources such as Bitfinex Alpha, on-chain data providers, and official policy announcements, and consult qualified professionals before making allocation decisions. Geopolitical developments and regulatory changes can produce abrupt market movements; past performance is not indicative of future results, and digital asset investments involve substantial risk of loss, including potential total loss of principal.